Smart Leaders Make Small Bets That Win Big

The gist: Smart leaders build their visions by making small and repeated bets when the odds are in their favor and avoiding big failures.


It doesn’t come up often, but I have a bit of an unsavory habit. I like to gamble. More precisely, I like to play blackjack.

Why blackjack? It’s one of the only table games with reasonable odds. If you play perfectly, you gain a sliver of an advantage over the house.1

That doesn’t mean you’ll win every game. In fact, you might face an epic losing streak taking you down to your last chips. But, in time, the odds say you’ll win.

When I sit down at a blackjack table, I get a little anxious. My senses perk up, and, without thinking, I become hyper-focused on making the right move.

I’m far from a perfect blackjack player and the stakes I set for myself are low, but I’ve always wondered if the anxiety I feel makes me a smarter, more careful player. If that bit of uncertainty about which cards will come next keeps me from stepping outside my bounds and making dumb decisions.

Psychological research says it does. A little anxiety makes smart gamblers use good judgment.

But the benefits of a touch of anxiety aren’t just for card players. Smart leaders can get the same effect at work and within their organizations. This is particularly true for introverts who are predisposed to carry a touch more anxiety than the average person.

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